Quantitative risk assessment of landslides over the China-Pakistan economic corridor

Abstract

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) connects southwest China and runs through Pakistan, a regional connectivity framework. However, priority construction of roads, railways, and other transport infrastructure is seriously threatened by landslides. Hence, we put forward a systematic evaluation index system to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation of landslides in CPEC. The evaluation process based on the index system mainly includes four main steps. In step 1, Based on landslide area density (LAD) and landslide point density (LPD) on topographic, geological, and geomorphic indicators, the landslide susceptibility in CPEC has been analyzed. In step 2, the landslides hazard assessment model was established using the susceptibility assessment result and the rainfall erosion intensity. In step 3, Combined with traffic facilities, population density, and property factors, the vulnerability evaluation index system was organized. In step 4, the risk assessment of landslides was proposed according to the disaster environment, hazard distribution, and vulnerability degree. Five levels of risk are classified: low, slight, moderate, high, and extremely high. 31.5% of the research areas are at the level of moderate risk or above. The research can further help transportation planning, resettlement region selection, and mitigation measure formulation in the landslide-prone areas.