Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs.

Carolina Muñoz-Pérez,José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno,Satoshi Ito,Marta Martínez-Avilés,Jaime Bosch

doi:10.3390/pathogens11010076

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

Highlights

Introduction into Spain by LegalImport of Live PigsCarolina Muñoz-Pérez 1, *, Jaime Bosch 1, Satoshi Ito 1, Marta Martínez-Avilés 2 and José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno 1 *VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre, Animal Health Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Abstract: African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present
The analysis aimed to identify geographical areas and time periods that pose the highest risk for African swine fever virus (ASFV) introduction into Spain and, to inform and reinforce control and prevention strategies as required
The overall mean annual probability of ASFV introduction into Spain by the legal import of live pigs was estimated as 1.07 × 10-4

Summary

Introduction

Introduction into Spain by LegalImport of Live PigsCarolina Muñoz-Pérez 1, * , Jaime Bosch 1 , Satoshi Ito 1 , Marta Martínez-Avilés 2 and José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno 1 *VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre, Animal Health Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Abstract: African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4 ), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain. African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most devastating diseases of swine. It is listed as notifiable by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) due to its high mortality, the lack of an effective vaccine or treatment, and the serious economic consequences. The disease was confined to Africa until 1957, with an outbreak in Portugal, which was rapidly controlled

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Discussion

Conclusion