Quantitative risk assessment model of working positions for roof accidents in coal mine

Abstract

Coal mine roof accidents rank first among the five major disasters in the mines, and the operation activities of each post are the main influencing factors, so the risk control of posts is an important part of coal mine safety management. By analyzing 261 typical roof accidents in China from 2010 to 2022, based on the method of structural importance analysis of the accident tree, the risk factors, frequency of occurrence, severity, and risk value of each risk factor of roof accidents were obtained; based on the kernel density analysis method, a new method for post superposition risk calculation model and evaluation is proposed. Using ArcGIS software kernel density analysis combined with risk factors, the superimposed risk values of each post were simulated, and the risk classification standard and risk assessment matrix were established to derive the risk levels of each post. The results show that: (1) before considering the risk superposition effect, the distribution of post risk value and risk level is intensive, over 50 % and 40 % of the post risk levels are concentrated in grade II and grade III, respectively, and there is no grade I risk. (2) after considering the risk superposition effect, the spatial distribution of risk value has obvious hierarchy, and the risk assessment results are more in line with the current situation of safety production. (3) high-risk positions mainly exist in coal mining face, tunneling face and corner, open-off cut.