Abstract

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) models have already been developed and used to assess various risks of road tunnels, including the societal risk and expected number of fatalities (ENF). Fire in a road tunnel is considered as the most severe disaster in that road tunnel is an enclosed space. The risk assessment for fire in road tunnels involves a number of parameters. Some of these parameters possess uncertainties in reality and they cannot be formulated as a crisp number. In this paper, these uncertain parameters are assumed to be random variables with given probability distribution functions. A novel QRA model is thus proposed to address the uncertainties in risk assessment caused by fire in road tunnel. In addition, the societal risk and ENF with distinct characteristics could be used to facilitate tunnel managers to make decisions. A case study is illustrated and the new characteristics of the risk indices are also discussed.

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