Quantitative Risk Assessment Model and Optimization in Infrastructure Fast-Track Construction Projects

Abstract

The construction industry has extensively applied the fast-tracking approach to the demanding need for the fast delivery of infrastructure projects. However, the fast-track strategy might be threatened by distinctive risks or changes in risk characteristics that emerge when activities are overlapped (overlapping risks). This article proposes a risk assessment simulation model to quantify the economic impact of overlapping risks on fast-track infrastructure projects. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation and a proprietary engine solution for the optimization procedure. It quantifies the overlapping risk impacts in the project duration and cost that could originate in three different overlapping degrees and evaluates the optimal overlapping degree to reduce the impact of the overlapping risks. The model demonstration used a commercial renovation project. The results suggest that overlapping risks have a high potential impact on the total cost, although with a high probability of attaining the target duration. Eight top risks affected the total duration, cost, or both. The optimum overlapping to reduce the economic impact and achieve the target project duration combines different overlapping degrees. This study contribution is a model for fast-track projects considering overlapping risks, their impact characteristic as a distribution, and the potential relationship between these risks.