Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by young children in French households

Abstract

A quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by children under 10 years of age in French households was conducted by a national study group describing an outbreak which occurred in France in 2005. Our exposure assessment model incorporates results from French surveys on consumption frequency of ground beef patties, serving size and consumption preference, microbial destruction experiments and microbial counts on patties sampled from the industrial batch which were responsible for the outbreak. Two different exposure models were proposed, respectively for children under the age of 5 and for children between 5 and 10 years. For each of these two age groups, a single-hit dose-response model was proposed to describe the probability of hemolytic and uremic syndrome (HUS) as a function of the ingested dose. For each group, the single parameter of this model was estimated by Bayesian inference, using the results of the exposure assessment and the epidemiological data collected during the outbreak. Results show that children under 5 years of age are roughly 5 times more susceptible to the pathogen than children over 5 years. Exposure and dose-response models were used in a scenario analysis in order to validate the use of the model and to propose appropriate guidelines in order to prevent new outbreaks. The impact of the cooking preference was evaluated, showing that only a well-done cooking notably reduces the HUS risk, without annulling it. For each age group, a relation between the mean individual HUS risk per serving and the contamination level in a ground beef batch was proposed, as a tool to help French risk managers.