Abstract
A dynamic risk analysis model of offshore fire and explosion is proposed in this paper. It considers the effect of human and organizational factors in a more explicit way than current traditional risk analysis methods. This paper begins with exploring the recent advances on offshore fire and explosion risk analysis theories, followed by briefly introducing the research techniques employed in the proposed hybrid causal logic model which consists of event tree, fault tree, Bayesian network, and system dynamics. Thereafter, it proposes a quantitative risk analysis framework. At last, the applicability of this model to the offshore platform is also discussed. It aims to provide guideline for risk analysis of offshore fire and explosion.
Highlights
Over the past two decades, a number of serious accidents including the Piper Alpha accident have attracted public concerns over offshore safety and reliability
The exploration of accidents in light of human error linked to underlying factors related to the human and organization work has been established as a major priority
The purpose of this paper is to simulate the dynamic effect of human and organizational error (HOE) on offshore fire/explosion risk, and its contributions can be summarized as follows: (1) A hybrid framework, including an integration of system dynamics, Bayesian network (BN), event tree, and fault tree, is built to analyze the dynamic offshore fire/explosion risk based on the effect analysis of HOE
Summary
Over the past two decades, a number of serious accidents including the Piper Alpha accident have attracted public concerns over offshore safety and reliability. The high cost of offshore platforms, fire/explosion severity, and complexity of marine environment determine the necessity and difficulty of fire/explosion risk analysis [2]. Historical statistics show that the majority of offshore fire and explosion accidents are caused by human and organizational error (HOE) [4]. Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that HOE analysis should be included in quantitative risk analysis. The mainstream offshore fire/explosion risk analysis methods focus more on probability of equipment and structures failure. Some attempt to build human reliability analysis models used in quantitative risk analysis chose to leverage expert information due to lack of HOE data.
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