Abstract
This discussion paper gives a limited history of work done at this Institute on quantitative modeling relating to lung cancer and cigarette smoking, a health hazard whose study has been given much encouragement by Norton Nelson. It first starts with the proposal that life shortening be considered as a measure of the impact of lung cancer using log normal and Weibull types of distributions of time to occurrence; second, it continues with an examination of the fits of the log normal and Weibull distributions to the Doll and Hill data on smoking and lung cancer in British physicians and a systematic review and development of mathematical models of carcinogenesis; and third, it reports on the current work that points out inconsistencies in the Armitage-Doll multistage model with the Doll and Hill data and suggests a two-stage clonal growth model that assumes promotion of clonal growth is restricted to cells initiated by the smoke. This proposal and related work support a current trend in risk assessment to adopt a two-stage clonal growth model that incorporates birth and death rates of cells and the transitional probabilities of the stages.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.