Abstract
In rural areas in developing countries where livelihoods directly depend on agriculture, shortage of water can have severe socio-economic and humanitarian consequences and has been suggested to result in conflict and migration. Understanding such responses is important for the development of effective water management policies and other interventions. However, despite the availability of extensive knowledge on water-related human behavior, water resources planning studies do not always look beyond direct impacts. Therefore, this paper assesses literature on water-related human responses, the quantification and conceptualization methods and theories used, the scale at which models are applied, and the extent to which findings are used to make policy recommendations. We found system dynamics approaches mostly applied for policy evaluations, but often with a limited integration of human behavior beyond water use; agent-based models seem to be suited for policy analysis, but only limitedly applied for that purpose; and statistical studies to present the widest range of human responses and explanatory factors, but without making the behavioral mechanisms explicit. In fact, only a limited number of studies was based on behavioral theories. Based on these findings we recommend eight steps to facilitate quantification of human responses for water resources planning purposes.
Highlights
The first focused on the combination of water availability and human responses, and the second focused on the combination of water availability and specific model types frequently used to model human behavior
The 39 papers have a strong focus on rural populations, especially on farmers and herders. This may result from the fact that there is a strong link between water availability and rural livelihoods, with 70% of global freshwater used for agriculture, and agriculture being important as a livelihood basis for rural communities (See Table 3)
Without giving any value judgment on desired or undesired consequences, we argue that it is important to understand the consequences of man-made or natural changes to water systems, in order to develop effective and adequate policies for drought relief, water management or climate adaptation
Summary
Changes in water availability, either through climate change or man-made, can lead to a loss of income from agriculture or from other water-related ecosystem services, such as pastures for cattle or fish production in lakes Such changes have been related to famine and impoverishment [1], to displacement and migration [2], and to social tensions and conflict [3]. Such impacts are not always straightforward, since people make individual decisions to adapt their livelihoods [4], to stay or to move away [5,6], to cooperate or to fight. Various factors play a role in such decisions, such as (1) the motivation and ability to adapt [4], (2) resources and social networks that facilitate migration [7],
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