Quantitative microbiological risk assessment for the occurrence of listeriosis in Brazil due to the consumption of milk processed by pasteurization or thermosonication

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate the risk of listeriosis from the consumption of pasteurized milk in Brazil, comparing conventional treatment with the technology of thermosonication. The Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model was developed, covering the entire milk production chain, from milking to the moment of consumption. In general, higher risks were observed in association with higher initial concentrations of the pathogen and the vulnerable population. The highest risk predicted (3.67 × 10−5) was related to the scenario considering the initial concentration range of L. monocytogenes between 4 and 6 log CFU/mL, with conventional treatment and considering the vulnerable population, resulting in one case of listeriosis every 27,248 servings. When considering thermosonication treatment, lower risks have been predicted. The scenario analysis indicated that the steps related to storage conditions in retail and at the consumer's home (post-processing steps) are the most influential in the associated risk, in all scenarios. The predictive parameters of inactivation related to the applied treatment also have a considerable influence on the risk. The results point to the influence of the stages of the dairy production chain and the thermosonication treatment applied in the food safety of milk, subsidizing information for industrial application and for regulatory agencies.