Quantitative impacts of meteorology and emissions on the long-term trend of O3 in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China from 2015 to 2022

Abstract

Extensive spatiotemporal analyses of long-trend surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and its meteorology-related and emission-related have not been systematically analyzed. In this study, by using 8-year-long (2015–2022) surface ozone observation data, we attempted to reveal the variation of multiple timescale components using the Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filter, and the effects of meteorology and emissions were quantitatively isolated using multiple linear regression with meteorological variables. The results showed that the short-term, seasonal, and long-term components accounted for daily maximum 8-hr average O3 (O3–8 hr) concentration, 46.4%, 45.9%, and 1.0%, respectively. The meteorological impacts account for an average of 71.8% of O3–8 hr, and the YRD's eastern and northern sections are meteorology-sensitive areas. Based on statistical analysis technology with empirical orthogonal function, the contribution of meteorology, local emission, and transport in the long-term component of O3–8 hr were 0.21%, 0.12%, and 0.6%, respectively. The spatiotemporal analysis indicated that a distinct decreasing spatial pattern could be observed from coastal cities towards the northwest, influenced by the monsoon and synoptic conditions. The central urban agglomeration north and south of the YRD was particularly susceptible to local pollution. Among the cities studied, Shanghai, Anqing, and Xuancheng, located at similar latitudes, were significantly impacted by atmospheric transmission—the contribution of Shanghai, the maximum accounting for 3.6%.