Abstract
The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1–45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.
Highlights
Preparedness for infectious disease outbreaks can be greatly enhanced by the availability of models that can predict the transmission of pathogens and assess the potential effectiveness of control measures1,2
This current study focused on investigating the concept of θ and ω for direct contact transmission of a virulent strain of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) amongst juvenile domestic pigs, and examining the impact of pre-clinical transmission on simulated outbreak size and severity within a US swine production system assuming either optimal or suboptimal response conditions
The findings presented suggest a difference between the duration of the latent- and incubation periods in FMDV-infected pigs that is statistically significantly greater than 0, and a resultant θ that is larger than previously suggested in studies of FMDV transmission in cattle
Summary
Preparedness for infectious disease outbreaks can be greatly enhanced by the availability of models that can predict the transmission of pathogens and assess the potential effectiveness of control measures1,2 The reliability of such models depends upon elucidation of key epidemiologic parameters for the disease, as well as a strong understanding of the transmission dynamics in susceptible populations and the effect of intervention strategies on preventing disease spread. Combining estimates for R0, θ, and ω provides a robust background for evaluating the importance of preclinical transmission in successful modeling of disease spread and control interventions This current study focused on investigating the concept of θ and ω for direct contact transmission of a virulent strain of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) amongst juvenile domestic pigs, and examining the impact of pre-clinical transmission on simulated outbreak size and severity within a US swine production system assuming either optimal or suboptimal response conditions. Simulating FMD outbreak scenarios using fixed and incrementally increasing values of ω demonstrated significant influence of incubation phase transmission on the size and duration of FMD outbreaks in US pig production systems, even in the presence of rigorous control strategies
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