Quantitative identification of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu basin since 1990s

Abstract

为针对性地提出洪湖流域水资源适应与应对气候变化和人类活动影响的措施,保护洪湖流域生态资源,促进其可持续发展,采取分布式水文模型SWAT定量辨识了1990s流域城镇快速发展以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域地表径流的影响程度.结果表明:近20年来,人类活动是洪湖流域地表径流减少的主要原因,其影响量占径流减少量的63.72%,气候变化的影响占36.28%.但不同阶段人类活动与气候变化对流域径流影响的程度不同,1990s气候变化对流域径流的影响量高于人类活动,2000s气候变化对流域径流的影响量低于人类活动,近20年来的水土保持措施已经发挥了较好的径流调节和保水效益.;In order to propose the measures of adaptation and response to the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu basin, to protect the ecological resources of Lake Honghu basin, and to promote its sustainable development, this paper used SWAT model to quantitatively identify the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu basin since 1990s. The results show:in recent 20 years, human activity is the main reason for the reduction of runoff in Lake Honghu wetland, its contribution to the reduction of runoff is 63.72%, with a contribution of 36.28% from climate change. The level of influence on runoff change in Lake Honghu Basin varies in different stages, with a higher influence of climate change in 1990s but a higher influence of human activity in 2000s. The measures of water and soil conservation have generated the benefits of runoff adjustment and water conservation in recent 20 years.