Quantitative factors of unenhanced CT for predicting fragmenting efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy on pancreatic duct stones

Abstract

To find potential predictors at unenhanced computed tomography (CT) to evaluate the stone clearance rate (SCR) of pancreatic duct stones (PDS) by extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL). A total of 106 consecutive patients with multiple stones of maximal transverse length (MTL) 0.3-3.6 cm in pancreatic head region were enrolled. Unenhanced CT was performed both before and after ESWL therapy. All patients underwent ESWL therapy using an electromagnetic lithotripter, and were divided into three groups with threshold values of >90%, 50-90% and <50% of SCR. Factors including sex, age, MTL, mean stone density (MSD), standard deviation of stone density (SDSD), variation coefficient of stone density (VCSD), attenuation density (AD), pancreatic duct diameter (PDD), skin-to-stone distance (SSD), and number of ESWL sessions were analysed, and their impact on SCR was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. The diagnostic threshold of the independent predicting index was further calculated, and its relationship with SCR and ESWL was analysed by drawing a trend line. The only significant predictor of SCR by ESWL was MSD (p<0.05). More courses of ESWL therapy are required in PDS patients with an MSD higher than the cut-off value of 375.4 HU (mean, 2.6 versus 1.8), but with a relatively lower SCR (mean, 43.96 versus 88.68%) . MSD on pre-treatment unenhanced CT is an independent predictor for SCR of PDS patients treated with ESWL. Using a cut-off value of 375.4 HU, patients with low MSD are good candidates for ESWL therapy.