QUANTITATIVE EVALUATIONS OF THE DOWNTOWN HABITATION PROGRAMS WITH PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENTS TOWARD THE CONSOLIDATED COMPACT CITIES

Abstract

This research aims to develop the logical process by which local governments can promote the consolidation and reorganization of public housing estates while fulfilling accountability. Therefore, this research developed the evaluation method based on the PDCA cycle using in the policy evaluation of local governments. 1) For the preliminary evaluation method at the planning stage, this research developed the method by which local governments can quantitatively evaluate the improvement effect of the convenience in everyday life and the reduction effect of the environmental load on future unspecified large number of households. Local governments can objectively select targeted housing estates, such as housing estates to be consolidated and housing estates to be abolished. 2) For the ex post evaluation method after completion, this research developed the method by which local governments can quantitatively evaluate the improvement effect of the convenience in everyday life and the environmental load reduction effect on actual occupied households of the housing estates to be consolidated. 1. The development of preliminary evaluation method Travel distances in four basic living behaviors, such as commuting, shopping, parenting and attending school, were set as evaluation indicators. For each evaluation indicator and for each housing estate, all housing estates were compared on the basis of estimating the travel distance and converting the travel distance into opportunity cost, travel expenses and CO2 emissions. 1) In all evaluation indicators, the numerical values of each housing estate are dispersed, and there are clear differences between housing estates. 2) There are large differences in standard deviations for each evaluation indicator, and the commuting distance is the largest. 3) In order to reduce opportunity costs and CO2 emissions, shortening commuting distance is most effective, and when selecting the target housing estate for consolidation and reorganization, the rationality to prioritize commuting convenience was confirmed. 2. The development of ex post evaluation method In order to verify whether the housing estate to be consolidated is expressing the expected effect of reducing opportunity cost etc. after completion, eight kinds of evaluation indicators including hospital, administration, community and junior high school are selected. Then, based on numerical values obtained by measuring the travel distance of the household member who actually moved into and converting the travel distance into opportunity cost etc. for each evaluation indicator, changes per person before and after moving into were calculated and the degree of influence of the evaluation indicators were compared and the effect of development of the housing estate to be consolidated was verified in total. 1) In the comparison of the influence degree of the evaluation indicators, it was confirmed that the commuting distance is most effective for decreasing opportunity cost etc. as predicted in the preliminary evaluation. 2) Regarding the evaluation indicators other than the commuting distance, there are some cases in which the opportunity cost etc. increased or decreased, but it was confirmed that the project effect was totally achieved. 3) By comparing the estimated value of commuting distance in the preliminary evaluation with the measured value in the ex-post evaluation, the accuracy of the estimated value was confirmed.