QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION OF POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES

Abstract

The subject of this article is the analysis of integration processes at an interstate level and within individual business groups, as well as the economic links of all participants in market relations which provide real opportunities for a more intensive movement of capital into new, highly efficient, at the same time more risky markets. The aim is to explain the principles of re-evaluating the investment attractiveness and the level of safety of many quite cost-effective capital investment options. The effectiveness of the decision made will depend on which of the possible situations in the external environment will actually take place. Fundamental to this approach is the ability to make the most out of the resources that the country possess - minerals. infrastructure, labor resources, etc., since ultimately this will determine the degree of its efficiency, its internal order. The rate of the stability of the system, the expectedness and predictability of its development are characterized by the concept of entropy. The principal of this approach is that the following is used as initial data: the volumes of transit traffic, the capacities of the enterprises being created, the volumes of the alienated territories. To adjust the parameters, the indicators related to the creation of new jobs and labor productivity for each analyzed investment program were used. At the same time, the investment risk is measured by the absolute value of possible losses in monetary terms. Accordingly, options for the development of external conditions are assigned, alternatives for tackling an issue are set and the effectiveness of each alternative and risks in various conditions should be determined. An important aspect of this approach is the ability to identify areas of high and absolute risk. This study confirms the following hypothesis. The potential for an export and raw material development of the economies of the post-Soviet countries has been exhausted, nevertheless, they have the opportunity to obtain strategic benefits from the current situation based on the stable world demand for provision, creating conditions for the rational directing resources into promising industries with the aim of developing industrial and post-industrial sectors in the country’s economy.