Abstract
ABSTRACT Abstract ID: 2017-143 – Industry considerations, regulatory recommendations, and public concerns have necessitated a quantitative approach to addressing the risks associated with crude-by-rail shipments. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of an event occurring and the potential consequences that may result. To adequately address both the probability and consequence sides of risk, a three-phased approach was developed for use. First, a probability assessment used historical freight rail accident data to calculate the probability of an accident occurring with adjustments specific to crude-by-rail transport, the likelihood that an accident involving a crude-by-rail unit train would result in the release of oil, and the potential size of that release. These results were then used as inputs to a consequence assessment. This necessitated an assumption that a spill had taken place and there either was or was not an ignition source nearby. In the second phase, two computational oil spill models (OILMAP Land and SIMAP) were used to determine the trajectory, fate, and effects of released oil onto land and into water. This analysis included determining where oil may be transported within the environment, how long it would take to get there, how it would weather and behave, what resources of interest may potentially be affected, and what the potential acute effects may be to specific biological receptors. The third phase included a fire and explosion analysis, which was used to determine the thermal radiation from pool fires and the overpressure from a vapor cloud explosion and boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). This assessment was used to quantitatively discuss both the probability and consequence sides of the risk associated with the proposed Shell Puget Sound Refinery Anacortes Rail Unloading Facility and was included in the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) addressing Environmental Health and Risk.
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