QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF EXISTING VIEWPOINTS ON THE ORIGIN OF MERCURY MINERALIZATION

Abstract

As yet, no final conclusion has been reached on the origin of mercury. Over 16 suggestions have been made in the literature on sources of mercury. The task here is to isolate the soundest hypothesis on the origin of mercury. The author has used a set of advanced mathematical methods providing a rational tool for handling complex problems and providing systematic evidence substantially free from subjective components. This includes the following: (1) systems analysis, which provides information on the detail and degree of uniformity in their knowledge even in the first stages of the research; (2) a wide range of statistical methods providing quantitative evaluation of the situation under conditions where a clear-cut model can be constructed; (3) methods and criteria from decision theory enabling one to evaluate possible alternatives if it is very difficult or impossible to construct a mathematical model; and (4) expert evaluations, which can reduce the level of uncertainty even in the absence of a rigorous theoretical basis by the use of judgments by specialists and from the human capacity to take rational decisions even when complete formalization is impossible. Based on this analysis and on the present level of knowledge, two sources of mercury aremore » favored: products from submarine volcanism; and upper mantle. 13 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.« less