Abstract
To optimize the dispatch and operation control of high proportion renewable energy power system, it is necessary to accurately quantify and evaluate the operational risk of system. For the high proportion renewable energy power system with uncertain wind and light sources, this paper presents a operational risk assessment method of wind and water systems based on probability assessment. By analyzing the distribution of uncertainty probability of system, the state probability is expressed as wind power output probability, solar output probability, transmission line probability and real-time state probability of system components. Use the analytic hierarchy process to assign weight to each type of risk indicators to solve the importance matching problem of different types of risk. On this basis, a operational risk assessment model is built by using Monte Carlo method which is used to select the real-time system states. Finally, an example is analyzed based on the actual power grid in a certain area, and calculation results show that the proposed quantitative calculation method for operational risk assessment of wind, solar and water multi-energy power systems can effectively evaluate the actual operation risk of system and meet the risk assessment requirements of high proportion renewable energy power system.
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