Abstract
The influence of climate change and human activities on hydrological elements has increased along with increasing dependence on water resources. Therefore, quantitative attribution of hydrological elements has received wide attention. In this study, the double mass curve (DMC) is used to assess the abrupt change point of the hydrological data series, based on which the periods with/without large-scale human activities causing runoff attenuation are separated. The land use transition matrix is then employed to analyze the land use types at different historical stages, and the sensitivities of the runoff attenuation to different land use/cover change (LUCC) categories are quantified. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model that considers the underlying surface is constructed with six designed scenarios of different climate and LUCC conditions. Taking three typical mountainous basins in North China as the study area, the quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to the water resources are identified. The results of the study have brought enlightenment to the water resource sustainable utilization and management in North China, and the methodologies can be transferred to runoff attribution analysis in water shortage areas.
Highlights
Climate change and human activity are the driving factors affecting the hydrological cycle and water resource evolution, and the hydrological effect has become the focus of global change research
The change points in vegetation coverage for Luan River Mountainous Basin (LRMB), Chaobai River Mountainous Basin (CRMB), and Yongding River Mountainous Basin (YRMB) are 2000, 1998, and 1999, respectively
The results show that the runoff in the mountainous areas of North China have been on an obvious declining trend, and climate change is not the only reason
Summary
Climate change and human activity are the driving factors affecting the hydrological cycle and water resource evolution, and the hydrological effect has become the focus of global change research. The impacts of human activities on the hydrological cycle of a catchment are increasingly significant, which are mainly manifested (i) in changes in the underlying surface conditions caused by land use/cover changes and the construction of large-scale water conservancy projects and (ii) in direct water extraction from surface and underground water, affecting the mechanism of runoff generation and concentration in the basin. Analyzing the hydrological responses to climate change and human activities at the watershed scale are vital to gain a deep understanding of the hydrological cycle, to facilitate sustainable development of water resources, and to improve the stability of the ecosystem [2]. The impact of human activities on runoff mainly results from changes in basin characteristics, whereas climate change changes the basin characteristics and the hydrological inputs [3]
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