Quantitative assessment of vulnerability in aquaculture: climate change impacts on whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) farming in East Java Province

Abstract

Whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannmaei) commodities has a high economic value and a huge market demand. Changes in temperature and precipitation seems to be the most significant factors climatic that effect shrimp aquaculture production. The objectives are to understand of climatic factors influence on the whiteleg shrimp farming sector in Indonesia based on IPSL(Institut Pierre Simon Laplace)-CM5A-MR(Medium Resolution) model and to understand adaptability of whiteleg shrimp to climate change on vulnerable area. The projection of the model includes four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, encompassing RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. These vulnerable map were created by overlaying the exposure maps (precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature) and sensitivity map (production maps) in various time. Banyuwangi District was the most vulnerable area in East Java Province. The questionary has analysed descriptively and found that 92% of the respondents are aware of climate change. The respondents reveal that increased on rainfall (34%) and decreased of temperature (29%) has negative impacts on shrimp production. Decrease in production influenced by disease and climate factors. Either future threats or current threats related to climate change and disease. More deeply there are insignificant positive correlation between temperature and precipitation with production in Banyuwangi.