Quantitative Assessment of Forest–Tundra Patch Dynamics in Polar Urals Due to Modern Climate Change

Abstract

The spatial and temporal dynamics of the Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the upper limit of its growth on the south-eastern macroslope of the Rai-Iz massif (Polar Urals, Russia) during the second half of the 20th to the beginning of the 21st century were analyzed. Current climate changes were accompanied by increased stand density on previously wooded parts of the mountain slopes and the appearance of new forest generations in lightly wooded or unforested parts of the studied area. Our original method for the automated recognition of boundaries among the key phytocoenohoras (closed forest, open forest, light forest, and tundra with single trees) is universally applicable and improves objectivity in selecting boundaries for these phytocoenohora types. With regard to the total area of the study site, the area of closed forest, open forest, and light forest, respectively, increased from 2.9% to 6.8%, from 9.6% to 13.1%, and from 7.5% to 15.6%, while the area of tundra lots with single trees decreased from 79.9% to 64.5%. Phytocoenohora type replacement in the course of the study period was characterized by a transition from forms with lower density to higher-density forms. Changes in the opposite direction were not discovered. Natural wind protection barriers for young larch tree generations included hummocks and groups of grown trees. The process of gradual tundra and forest tundra forestation then began on the leeward side of the barrier close to seed-producing trees.