Quantitative Assessment and Diagnosis for Regional Agricultural Drought Resilience Based on Set Pair Analysis and Connection Entropy.

Menglu Chen,Yi Cui,Yuliang Zhou,Shaowei Ning,Chengguo Wu,Juliang Jin

doi:10.3390/e21040373

Abstract

Assessment and diagnosis of regional agricultural drought resilience (RADR) is an important groundwork to identify the shortcomings of regional agriculture to resist drought disasters accurately. In order to quantitatively assess the capacity of regional agriculture system to reduce losses from drought disasters under complex conditions and to identify vulnerability indexes, an assessment and diagnosis model for RADR was established. Firstly, this model used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weights, then proposed an assessment method based on connection number and an improved connection entropy. Furthermore, the set pair potential based on subtraction was used to diagnose the vulnerability indexes. In addition, a practical application had been carried out in the region of the Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province. The evaluation results showed that the RADR in this area from 2005 to 2014 as a whole was in a relatively weak situation. However, the average grade values had decreased from 3.144 to 2.790 during these 10 years and the RADR had an enhanced tendency. Moreover, the possibility of RADR enhancement for six cities in this region decreased from east to west, and the drought emergency condition was the weak link of the RADR in the Huaibei Plain.

Highlights

Drought is a natural phenomenon, which usually arises from a severe shortage of regional water resources over a certain period of time [1]
It is a recurring pattern of climate that occurs within most climatic regions, which can be exacerbated by the imbalance between water supply and water demand over time [2,3]
The analysis showed that the regional agricultural drought resilience (RADR) in Bengbu was weakening on the whole

Summary

Introduction

Drought is a natural phenomenon, which usually arises from a severe shortage of regional water resources over a certain period of time [1]. With the occurrence of severe droughts around the world, various problems caused by them have aroused great attention from all walks of life [4]. These complex phenomena include water scarcity and water shortage [5,6], indicating that drought may have a more profound impact on human society than other natural disasters. The research on drought has become the focus of water resources and natural hazards studies

Methods

Results

Conclusion