Quantitative analysis of the sensitivity and spatial stratified heterogeneity of extreme precipitation across river basins

Abstract

Global warming is expected to lead to a continuous increase in extreme precipitation. However, the response of extreme precipitation to climate change remains not entirely clear. This study quantitatively analyzes extreme precipitation in multiple river basins of China over the past nearly 60 years using high spatial resolution data. Both extreme precipitation and mean precipitation exhibit a spatial distribution pattern of higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. However, their sensitivity to temperature shows an asymmetric spatial pattern, with higher sensitivity in the northwest and lower sensitivity in the southeast. Overall, the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature (9.6 %/K) is 1.1 times that of mean precipitation (8.8 %/K). Additionally, the sensitivity of extreme precipitation in relatively dry areas (Continental River Basin) is about five times that in relatively wet areas (other river basins). Vegetation has the highest explanatory power (i.e., q-value) for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of extreme precipitation, ranging from 0.61 to 0.72, with the explanatory power of natural factors exceeding that of societal factors. Furthermore, the interaction between vegetation and elevation enhances the explanatory power for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of extreme precipitation, reaching values between 0.74 and 0.82.