Abstract
Taking the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the study area, this paper utilizes the geographical detector model to quantify the feedback effects from the terrestrial environment on precipitation variation from 1985 to 2010 with a comprehensive consideration of natural factors (forest coverage rate, vegetation type, terrain, terrestrial ecosystem types, land use and land cover change) and social factors (population density, farmland rate, GDP and urbanization rate). First, we found that the precipitation trend rate in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is between −47 and 96 mm/10a. Second, forest coverage rate change (FCRC), urbanization rate change (URC), GDP change (GDPC) and population density change (PDC) have a larger contribution to precipitation change through land-surface feedback, which makes them the leading factors. Third, the human element is found to primarily account for the precipitation changes in this region, as humans are the active media linking and enhancing these impact factors. Finally, it can be concluded that the interaction of impact factor pairs has a significant effect compared to the corresponding single factor on precipitation changes. The geographical detector model offers an analytical framework to reveal the terrestrial factors affecting the precipitation change, which gives direction for future work on regional climate modeling and analyses.
Highlights
Taking the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the study area, this paper utilizes the geographical detector model to quantify the feedback effects from the terrestrial environment on precipitation variation from 1985 to 2010 with a comprehensive consideration of natural factors and social factors
According to the interaction detector, we found that the PD,Hvalues of forest coverage rate change (FCRC) ∩urbanization rate change (URC) (74.1%), FCRC ∩population density change (PDC) (75.0%), and URC ∩PDC (71.0%) are very high and enhance each other to increase precipitation change, which emphasizes directions for future work
We used geographical detectors to verify the effects of some of the natural and social factors on precipitation change at a regional scale. We believe that this program is unique because it extracts the interrelationships between precipitation change and terrestrial environmental factors using the correspondence of their spatial distribution and, most importantly, because it is implemented
Summary
The causes of precipitation changes are very complicated due to the interaction of the land surface with the atmosphere. We used geographical detectors to verify the effects of some of the natural and social factors on precipitation change at a regional scale. 5. The results of the risk detector show that the main impact types (ranges) of the leading factors of FCRC, URC, GDPC and PDC on precipitation change are 0.7411~4.7979%/10a, −7 .7920~2.5006%/10a, 87824~128190ten thousand yuan/10a or 276670~399510ten thousand yuan/10a, and 36.81~52.33person/km2/10a, respectively. Threshold values of the main impact ranges can be overcome by collaboration with climate models This is likely a better way to integrate geographical detectors with traditional meteorology methods to discover the precipitation change mechanism. The results from this study can help researchers to understand the spatial pattern of precipitation change with impact factors and provide clues for further studies by integrating traditional observation, simulation, contrast testing, etc
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