Abstract
Soccer referees are required to make instant decisions during the game under non-optimal conditions such as imperfect view of the incident and substantial pressure from the crowd, the teams, and the media. Some of the decisions can be subjective, such as a yellow card decision after a foul is called, where different referees might make different decisions. Here we perform quantitative analysis of factors related to the reputation of the team such as the team’s rank, budget, and crowd attendance in home games, and correlate these factors with referee decisions such as penalty kicks and yellow cards. The calls were normalized by dividing the number of yellow cards by the number of fouls, and the number of penalty kicks by the number of shot attempts from the penalty box. Application of the analysis to the four major soccer leagues shows that certain referee decisions have significant correlation with factors such as the team’s rank, budget, and audience in home games, while for other decisions the Pearson correlation is not statistically significant. For budget, or audience in home games. On the other hand, a significant Pearson correlation has been identified between the chance of a foul call to result in a yellow card and the rank or budget of the team in the Bundesliga. The strongest correlation has been observed between the chance of a tackle to result in a foul call, and the budget and rank of the team.
Highlights
As technology such as TV replays is not used in soccer refereeing [1], decisions that might determine the outcome of the game are made by the referee in a flash of a second [2], and sometimes even without a clear view of the play [3]
The data used in the study included information such as yellow cards, penalty kicks, shot attempts from inside the penalty box, tackles, and fouls committed by the team, as well as factors related to the reputation of the team such as the team’s rank, budget, and size of the audience in home games
The likelihood of getting a yellow card after committing a foul shows that in Serie A and Primera Division referee decisions are weakly correlated with any of the tested factors, indicating that in these two soccer leagues the likelihood of a foul to result in a yellow card has merely a weak link to the team’s budget, rank, or crowd in the stadium
Summary
As technology such as TV replays is not used in soccer refereeing [1], decisions that might determine the outcome of the game are made by the referee in a flash of a second [2], and sometimes even without a clear view of the play [3]. Refereeing a soccer match requires a substantial physical effort, which can increase when the game becomes more intensive [11]. The point of view of soccer fans cannot be considered objective, formal studies have shown substantial. Some evidence have shown referee bias in the stoppage time (extra time) of the game [31, 34, 35], and differences in the interpretation of tackles [36]. We apply quantitative analysis to study soccer referee calls such as penalty kicks, fouls, and yellow cards, and test whether these calls correlate with factor related to the team’s overall reputation such as the team’s budget, rank, or size of audience in home games. The study is focused on the recent years of the four major European leagues – Primera Division (Spain), Premier League (England), Bundesliga (Germany), and Serie A (Italy)
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