Abstract
Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors’ effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors’ effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors’ effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors’ effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.
Highlights
Oil pipelines are used more and more widely and their accidents may result in serious consequences
Risk factors are identified qualitatively by the incident evolution diagram. They are deployed as the nodes deployment rule of Bayesian network (BN) model and initialed according to the conditional probabilities given by statistics and experts’ estimation
This paper introduces a quantitative analysis model of the risk factors that affect oil pipeline network accident
Summary
Oil pipelines are used more and more widely and their accidents may result in serious consequences. Several types of factors, including hazard property, environment condition, hazard-affected carriers and emergency response, can affect oil pipelines accident consequences. The effect of these factors should be analyzed to identify their importance. The risk factors can be identified by these diagram methods but it’s difficult for quantitative analysis. Risk factors are identified qualitatively by the incident evolution diagram They are deployed as the nodes deployment rule of BN model and initialed according to the conditional probabilities given by statistics and experts’ estimation. Based on the BN model of this oil pipeline accident, the effects of risk factors can be analyzed quantitatively and the consequences can be predicted according to the most likely consequence situations
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