Quantitative analysis of earthquake fatalities: case of Iran

Abstract

Earthquakes in Iran are major and chronic disasters, but there is a seemingly downward trend in the number of lives lost from earthquake disasters in the past five decades. This paper particularly examines whether factors such as urbanization, literacy rate, wealth, and retrofitting measures have contributed to the declining trend of fatalities over past decades. Data records of 1960–2010 have been used to demonstrate the fatalities trend and a shorter series of 1990–2010 has been used to carry out a statistical analysis due to limited availability of information on retrofitting practices in the country. Regression models run in two stages. The first stage consists of normalized fatalities of Iran’s earthquakes, regressed on urbanization, wealth, and retrofitting. The second stage involves the measure of retrofit as the dependent variable regressed over urbanization and/or wealth as explanatory variables. The resulted regression models clearly explain the importance of retrofitting measure in saving lives in earthquakes disasters, as well as providing economic advantages and robust environment to the population. The study provides significant guidance for public policy. Undoubtedly, retrofitting, started in the country from 1990, has decreased the number of deaths; nonetheless, the measure is found to be mostly enforced in the cities and not in rural areas. Decision makers can use the results of this study to prioritize retrofit in rural areas, more than ever, and as much as possible.