Quantitative analysis of consequences to masonry buildings interacting with slow-moving landslide mechanisms: a case study

Abstract

Quantitative analysis of consequences (in terms of expected monetary losses) induced by slow-moving landslide mechanisms to buildings or infrastructure networks is a key step in the landslide risk management framework. It can influence risk mitigation policies as well as help authorities in charge of land management in addressing/prioritizing interventions or restoration works. This kind of analysis generally requires multidisciplinary approaches, which cannot disregard a thorough knowledge of landslide mechanisms, and rich datasets that are seldom available as testified by the limited number of examples in the scientific literature. With reference to the well-documented case study of Lungro town (Calabria region, southern Italy)—severely affected by slow-moving landslides of different types—the present paper proposes and implements a multi-step procedure for monetary loss forecasting associated with different landslide kinematic/damage scenarios. Procedures to typify landslide mechanisms and physical vulnerability analysis, previously tested in the same area, are here appropriately merged to derive both kinematic and damage scenarios to the exposed buildings. Then, the outcomes are combined with economic data in order to forecast monetary loss at municipal scale. The proposed method and the obtained results, once further validated, could stand as reference case for other urban areas in similar geo-environmental contexts in order to derive useful information on expected direct consequences unless slow-moving landslide risk mitigation measures are taken.