Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of Correlation between Xintan Landslide Displacement, Reservoir Water Level and Rainfall

Abstract

In order to study the influencing factors of Xintan landslide deformation and the growth law of cumulative displacement, this paper discusses the correlation between displacement and reservoir water level and rainfall through qualitative and quantitative analysis. The conclusions are as follows: 1 Through qualitative analysis, it can be preliminarily considered that the rise of reservoir water level is the main influencing factor of landslide displacement; 2. The correlation between Xintan landslide displacement and reservoir water level and rainfall is quantitatively calculated and analyzed by using Spearman correlation coefficient method. The calculation results show that the correlation coefficient is 0.5 ≪ ρ ≪ 0.8, the cumulative displacement of each monitoring point of Xintan landslide has a positive correlation with the reservoir water level, and the correlation coefficient at the stage when the water level drops to low water level is 0.1<| ρ|< At the same time, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between landslide displacement and rainfall is 0.448, and the correlation is not close; To sum up, Xintan landslide deformation has the most obvious response to the rise of reservoir water level. 3. According to this characteristic, the displacement monitoring data from July to September, which is the most serious landslide deformation every year from 2007 to 2016, are selected, and the time is fitted by univariate linear regression with the cumulative displacement as the objective function. The results show that the cumulative displacement from July to September has a linear relationship with time, and the error of the predicted value of cumulative displacement in 2017 is less than 1%, with high prediction accuracy.