Abstract
In view of the heterogeneity of natural gas consumption in different sectors in China, this paper utilizes Bayesian network (BN) to study the driving factors of natural gas consumption in power generation, chemical and industrial fuel sectors. Combined with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and scenario analysis, the gas consumption of the three sectors is predicted. The results show that the expansion of urbanization will promote the gas consumption of power generation. The optimization of industrial structure and the increase of industrial gas consumption will enhance the gas consumption of chemical sector. The decrease of energy intensity and the increase of gas consumption for power generation will promote the gas consumption of industrial fuel. Moreover, the direct influencing factors of gas price are urbanization, energy structure and energy intensity. The direct influencing factors of environmental governance intensity are gas price, urbanization, industrial structure, energy intensity and energy structure. In 2025, under the high development scenario, China's gas consumption for power generation, chemical and industrial fuel sectors will be 66.034, 36.552 and 109.414 billion cubic meters respectively. From 2021 to 2025, the average annual growth rates of gas consumption of the three sectors will be 4.82%, 2.18% and 4.43% respectively.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
