Quantile spillovers and connectedness analysis between oil and African stock markets

Abstract

This study examines the spillovers and connectedness between oil and the African stock markets under bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions. Using the quantile connectedness method, we find higher spillovers under bearish market conditions than in both tranquil and bullish market conditions. Oil is a net transmitter of spillovers in the African markets. Furthermore, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa are net receivers of spillovers, and Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Mauritius are net transmitters of spillovers in the lower quantile. In the median quantile, Ghana shifts to being a net transmitter of spillovers, whereas Egypt becomes a net receiver of spillovers. In the upper quantiles, all markets are net transmitters of spillovers, except for Mauritius and Egypt. We find a strong connectedness between oil and the Nigerian market during bearish and tranquil market conditions which alleviates the bullish market scenario. Moreover, spillovers reached the maximum level in early 2020, corresponding to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio analysis shows that an optimally weighted portfolio offers the best downside risk for all markets. The hedged portfolio offers the best risk reduction for all economies.