Abstract
Extreme rainfall events have been great interest in statistical downscaling. This paper concerns with developing model of statistical downscaling using quantile regression to estimate extreme monthly rainfall. Statistical downscaling relates functionally local scale response variable and global scale predictor variables. The response variable is monthly rainfall from 1979 to 2008 at station Bangkir Indonesia and the predictor variables are monthly precipitation of 64 grid of Global Circulation Model output in the same period. Principal Component Analysis is used to reduce dimension of predictors. A number of components for developing quantile regression model are determined based on Quantile Verification Skill Score. The results show that at 95th quantile the pattern of forecasted rainfall in January to December 2008 is similar to actual rainfall with correlation 0.98 and the forecasted rainfall (843 mm) in February 2008 is considered as the extreme rainfall which confirms well to the highest actual rainfall (727 mm) with probability 0.99.
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