Abstract
BackgroundThe Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus.MethodsBayesian structural time series model provide a model to quantify the scenario in which these government-level interventions were not placed. Our models predict these strict social distancing measures caused a 79% and 61% reduction in the daily cases of COVID-19 across Australia and New Zealand respectively.ConclusionThis provides both evidence and impetus for governments considering similar measures in response to COVID-19 and other pandemics.
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