Quantifying Uncertainty Through Global and Mesoscale Ensembles

Abstract

Abstract : The long-term goal of this project is to develop robust global and mesoscale ensemble analysis and forecast systems that are able to provide probabilistic forecast guidance in an operational environment. Although current guidance relies primarily on single deterministic forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, recent advances in probabilistic prediction, or ensemble forecasting, have made this technique a very powerful tool for providing more complete input on environmental conditions, including a measure of the forecast confidence. Probabilistic prediction of Navy relevant high-impact weather will significantly benefit sea strike and sea shield functions if there are clearly identified user-relevant norms. Ensembles also allow for the covariance between relevant weather variables to be taken into account, for example, indicating that if the wind speed is high, then visibility will also be high.