Abstract
Recent studies have pointed out that climate change is likely to have important implications on the extent and frequency of flooding events. Indeed, the intensification of the water cycle occurring in different areas of the world can dramatically affect the incidence of extreme events and, consequently, the flow in rivers or artificial channels, increasing the probability of disastrous floods. In this context, the criteria for the assessment of flood risk need to be improved to take into account the variability of rainfall due to climate change. In this study, a Bayesian procedure was used to update the parameters of the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves and quantify the uncertainty related to their assessment in some climate change scenarios. The critical storm obtained from these updated DDF curves was used as input for the FLO-2D hydraulic model, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on flood risk. The area of study was an urban catchment in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy. Results showed that rainfall variations remarkably affect not only the magnitude of flood events, but also the flood susceptibility of the study area.
Highlights
The design criteria of an urban drainage system are based on the knowledge and prediction of rainfall extremes
In the USA, Markus et al [10] developed a methodology for diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios applied to urban flooding in Chicago
The Bayesian procedure proposed by Liuzzo et al [23] was applied to define the DDF curves for different climate change scenarios in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy
Summary
The design criteria of an urban drainage system are based on the knowledge and prediction of rainfall extremes. The increased occurrence of extreme rainfall events is expected to alter the magnitude and frequency of peak flows over the service life of urban drainage systems [4]. Several studies have investigated the impact of climate change on urban flooding. In Australia, Schreider et al [8] estimated the changes in the potential damage of flood events caused by climate change in three catchments near Sidney and Canberra. In Canada, Denault et al [9] used the SWMM model to analyze the potential impacts of changes in short duration rainfall intensity on urban drainage systems in the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed (Canada). Huong and Pathirana [11] used a 1-D/2-D coupled urban drainage/flooding model (SWMM-Brezo) model to estimate the changes in flood hazard in the city of
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