Quantifying the Uncertainty in Long-Term Traffic Prediction Based on PI-ConvLSTM Network

Abstract

This work proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for long-term traffic flow prediction (TFP) based on a sequential deep learning model. Quantifying the uncertainty of TFP is crucial for intelligent transportation system (ITS) to make robust traffic congestion analysis and efficient traffic management due to the inherent uncertain and fluctuating nature of traffic flow. However, the performance (e.g., reliability and sharpness) of uncertainty quantification is hard to guarantee, particularly for long-term traffic flow (e.g., one week or two weeks in advance). To this end, this work develops a nonparametric performance-oriented prediction interval (PI) construction approach based on an enhanced sequential convolutional long short-term memory units (ConvLSTM) model, which is named as PI-ConvLSTM. This model can well learn the temporal correlations involved in the multivariate explanatory samples. Specifically, a periodic pattern learning strategy and a performance-oriented loss function are developed to ensure the quality of the derived PIs. Through validating on the real-life England freeway traffic flow dataset, the proposed PI-ConvLSTM proves to be capable of producing the skillful PIs for long-term TFP. For instance, the performance of derived PIs for two-week ahead is 0.175%, 0.198 and 1957.127 in average in terms of reliability, average width and sharpness, respectively. As compared to the benchmark models the proposed model shows at least 68.1% improvement on reliability, 3.4% on average width and 1.7% on sharpness.