Quantifying the surface water runoff to the Dead Sea under different climate scenarios. A case study from Wadi Arogut

Abstract

The surrounding area of the Dead Sea, especially the west side, suffers from many hydrological problems. It is necessary to maintain a type of balance between surface water exploitation through the Wadi and at the same time allow a sufficient amount of flow to the Dead Sea to ensure its sustainability. In this study, we choose one of the large tributaries in the western side of the Dead Sea basin. The stream was modelled for runoff response to different rainfall amounts and climate conditions. The model data show that normal average events contribute about 18-22 MCM annually to the Dead Sea. The reoccurrence of dry season such as 2005/2006 shows an adverse effect on the Dead Sea. In the rainy season 1991/1992, there was a higher amount of rainfall over the study area that reached around 155 MCM. Despite the presence of this high amount, most of the recharge was lost to the ground as groundwater recharge. The total loss (rather than surface runoff) was much higher (77%). Moreover, 50% less precipitation in 2006 decreased the Dead Sea by 5 metres within five years, and a 60% increase of precipitation in 1992 raised the water level 2 metres only for two to three succeeding years.