Quantifying the Self-Selection Effect in Residential Location and Vehicle Use Choices with a Structural Equation Model

Abstract

Lots of studies have confirmed the vehicle usage reduction effect of compact and mixed land use development. However, debates on self-selection issue have been brought in during recent years. This paper established a structural equation model with vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), vehicle ownership and residential location estimated simultaneously. The residential self-selection is controlled through two ways in the model: implicitly through the correlated error terms in multiple equations and explicitly through the incorporation of expected VKT in the equation of residential location choice. The authors estimated the model using household travel survey data in Washington DC area collected in 2007. The results showed that land use itself could still influence travel behavior after removing self-selection effects. VKT reduction effect of land use would be exaggerated without considering self-selection, and self-selection effect would account for a larger part of the total effect in more compact and better mixed development areas.