Quantifying the role of weather forecast error on the uncertainty of greenhouse energy prediction and power market trading

Abstract

Currently the Dutch greenhouse horticultural sector has a high energy demand. The present use of weather forecasts can exacerbate this high energy consumption by contributing to suboptimal prediction and trading of the greenhouse's power demand. This study investigates the role of weather forecast errors on energy prediction power and trading uncertainty in greenhouse horticulture. This was done using an uncertainty analysis and computer model of a tomato producing Venlo style greenhouse in Bleiswijk, The Netherlands. This greenhouse model was used to predict the greenhouse's gas and electrical power demand. The study concluded that errors in the weather forecast of outdoor radiation, temperature and wind speed caused an overestimation of greenhouse energy demand. A sensitivity analysis showed that the radiation forecast error had the greatest impact on predicted greenhouse power demand errors with a mean relative error of 6.1%. Predicted gas demand errors were most dependent on the outside wind speed forecast mean relative error (18.0%) and temperature forecast error (17.2%). A power trading uncertainty analysis was done to investigate the impact of predicted energy demand errors on the cost of buying power on the Dutch imbalance and Amsterdam Power Exchange day-ahead market. This cost analysis found that the volume of initial power trading was greater than corrective trading. Additionally, the higher volatility in short term power prices resulted in higher corrective power costs per unit of power than if the power demand had been initially predicted with more accuracy.