Abstract
The enhanced warming of the Arctic, relative to other parts of the Earth, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, is one of the most striking features of climate change, and has important climatic impacts for the entire Northern Hemisphere. Several mechanisms are believed to be responsible for Arctic amplification; however, a quantitative understanding of their relative importance is still missing. Here, using ensembles of model integrations, we quantify the contribution of ocean coupling, both its thermodynamic and dynamic components, to Arctic amplification over the 20th and 21st centuries. We show that ocean coupling accounts for ~80% of the amplification by 2100. In particular, we show that thermodynamic coupling is responsible for future amplification and sea-ice loss as it overcomes the effect of dynamic coupling which reduces the amplification and sea-ice loss by ~35%. Our results demonstrate the utility of targeted numerical experiments to quantify the role of specific mechanisms in Arctic amplification, for better constraining climate projections.
Highlights
One of the most robust responses of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing in climate model projections is Arctic amplification, the greater warming of the Arctic relative to other regions on our planet[1]
The role of ocean coupling in Arctic amplification We start by considering the Arctic amplification
In LE both thermodynamic and dynamic ocean coupling can affect the warming of the Arctic region and the warming of the rest of the Earth; the warming is assessed relative to the 1980–1999 period, warming of the Arctic over the 20th and 21st centuries
Summary
One of the most robust responses of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing in climate model projections is Arctic amplification, the greater warming of the Arctic relative to other regions on our planet[1]. More directly relevant to this paper, previous fixed-ocean-heat flux convergence studies (i.e., studies that contrasted fully coupled with slab-ocean models) found that, under doubling of CO2 concentrations, ocean heat fluxes (both horizontal and vertical heat transport) act to increase Arctic amplification[37,40]. Building on such studies, which were confined to an idealized forcing scenario (i.e., abrupt CO2 doubling), we here use a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments[11] forced with a realistic transient forcing: the Historical (20th century) and the.
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