Abstract

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

Highlights

  • Version of Record: A version of this preprint was published at Environmental Research Letters on January

  • Committed emissions from the existing and proposed global coal fleet have declined over the past few years

  • If all coal plants in the pipeline are built as scheduled, stranded assets may reach

Read more

Summary

Discussion

Committed emissions from the existing and proposed global coal fleet have declined over the past few years. While some asset stranding is likely under any climate policy[5], new plants have an outsized impact on stranded assets that can be avoided if these plants are not built. While the global average lifetime at retirement for coal plants is approximately 50 years, lifetimes vary significantly across plants and locations. Coal plants in the U.S can have lifetimes well beyond 50 years, and new investments in emissions controls may lead to asset stranding even for old plants. If all plants in the pipeline are built, stranded assets can be significant even if plant lifetimes are limited to 20 years

Methods
Findings
53. Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change
Full Text
Published version (Free)

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call