Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective

Abstract

This study evaluates four recent policies for China's power sector—mandatory renewable targets, green dispatch, carbon capture and sequestration development, and coal-fired generation efficiency improvements—and quantifies their energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction potential through 2050 using bottom-up energy modeling and scenario analysis. We find renewable targets and green dispatch have crucial interlinked impacts on energy and CO2 emissions that could change the shape and peak year of China's power-sector emissions outlook. Without either renewable targets or green dispatch, coal will likely continue dominating China's power mix and could delay the power-sector CO2 emissions peak to the late 2030s.