Abstract
This paper focuses on understanding the effects of projected climate change on streamflow dynamics of the Grand and Thames rivers of the Northern Lake Erie (NLE) basin. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model is developed, calibrated, and validated in a base-period. The model is able to simulate the monthly streamflow dynamics with ‘Good’ to ‘Very Good’ accuracy. The calibrated and validated model is then subjected with daily bias-corrected future climatic data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). Five bias-correction methods and their 12 combinations were evaluated using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd). Distribution mapping (DM) performed the best and was used for further analysis. Two future time-periods and two IPCC AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered. Results showed marked temporal and spatial variability in precipitation (−37% to +63%) and temperature (−3 °C to +14 °C) changes, which are reflected in evapotranspiration (−52% to +412%) and soil water storage (−60% to +12%) changes, resulting in heterogeneity in streamflow (−77% to +170%) changes. On average, increases in winter (+11%), and decreases in spring (–33%), summer (−23%), and autumn (−15%) streamflow are expected in future. This is the first work of this kind in the NLE and such marked variability in water resources availability poses considerable challenges to water resources planners and managers.
Highlights
The Great Lakes, bordering Canada and the United States of America (USA), provide fresh water resources for consumption, transportation, tourism, and power generation, among others, to the surrounding inhabitants, communities, and industries, thereby contributing significantly to the environment and economy
In light of growing evidence of climatic change, such as significant increases in winter temperature [6], decreases in snowfall proportion on total precipitation [7], changes in lake level [8], changes in streamflow input to the lake [9], changes in freeze-thaw frequencies [6], increases in drought and flood frequency [7], changes in ice cover [9], among others in the Great Lakes area, it is of paramount importance that climate change impact assessments on different hydrologic and water quality components are carried out, and plausible adaptation measures are undertaken immediately
The simulated streamflow followed the trend of the observations
Summary
The Great Lakes, bordering Canada and the United States of America (USA), provide fresh water resources for consumption, transportation, tourism, and power generation, among others, to the surrounding inhabitants, communities, and industries, thereby contributing significantly to the environment and economy. As a result of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) between Government of Canada and USA in 1972, marked reduction of phosphorus load helped to improve the water quality of the lake significantly [2]. In recent times, the algae bloom resurfaced again mainly due to the increased levels of harmful pollutants and phosphorous primarily from agricultural lands within the Lake Erie basin [3]. As hydrology is one of the main drivers of pollutants [10], quantification of climate-induced altercation on different water resources components and on streamflow dynamics is required in the first place
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