Quantifying the impact of travel time duration and valuation on modal shift in Swiss passenger transportation

Abstract

Decarbonizing the passenger transportation sector is critical for climate change mitigation. Existing studies on net-zero scenarios using Energy System Optimization Models (ESOM) often overlook non-monetary aspects of consumers' mobility choices but primarily focus on cost aspects. This study incorporates consumers' travel time duration and valuation, and an endogenous modal shift option into the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM). STEM is applied in a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the impacts of faster Public Transport (PT) and slower car speeds on modal shifts in the transport sector's transformation. Similarly, we assess scenarios where consumers weigh travel time less, reflecting improved travel productivity. The results show that speed variations on medium- and long-distance trips, which can be interpreted as policies for highway speed limits and more efficient PT, can induce modal shifts towards 5–10% higher PT demand. Its implied secondary effects across the energy system include a reduced need for electrification of heavy-duty trucks by 11% and a decrease in hydrogen demand in road transportation by 34% by 2050. If travelers weigh costs over travel time, PT becomes less competitive against cars. Thus, electric vehicles (EVs) need to play a more dominant role in decarbonization, with a demand increase of 13% in 2040 (+9.2 billion passenger kilometer (bpkm)) and 6% in 2050 (+5.0 bpkm), along with the need for additional 45,000 public chargers of 22 kW size. Policy implications include the emphasis on improved PT speeds, speed limits on highways, needs to achieve more widespread EV adoption, and the need for balancing travelers' decision factors when aiming for reduced transport CO2 emissions.