Quantifying the impact of the major driving mechanisms of inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea

Abstract

New 67-year long (1948–2014) gridded time series of salinity in the North Sea at all depths allowed to quantify, spatially resolved, the amount of inter-annual salinity variability explained by each of its driving mechanisms: sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation, river run-off, zonal and meridional winds and currents over the eastern North Atlantic. For the current data, not only annual averages but also their deviations, as measure of turbulence, were considered. Our results summarize and expand the knowledge gathered in the last 50years about the mechanisms driving inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea. Three mechanisms, uncorrelated with each other and acting over separate regions of the North Sea, arise as most important: (1) River run-off from continental Europe explains 50–80% of inter-annual salinity variations at lag 0 in the Southern and German Bights and the Norwegian Trench up to the connection with the North Atlantic, down to the seabed near the coasts and to the deep Norwegian Trench (100m); (2) Remote variations of salinity in the Rockall Trough explain 70% of salinity variations of the tongue of high salinity in the northwestern North Sea with a lag of one year and down the water column; (3) The Neva discharge explains 60% of salinity changes in Skagerrak and southern Norwegian trench at lag 0. An explanation for this correlation might be the Baltic freshwater outflow being modulated by the Neva discharge through intensification of the estuarine gravitational circulation. We confirmed known relations between river run-off, precipitation over continental Europe, SLP over northern Europe and zonal wind over western Europe. Linked to these changes, we found also changes of meridional wind north of Scotland favoring eastward Ekman transport of salty North Atlantic waters into the North Sea off the Norwegian coast. Excluding this only case, we found no significant correlation between wind-driven currents and North Sea salinity changes. This result supports the notion that the Atlantic inflow into the North Sea is mainly density-driven. Salinity in the region east of Scotland and northern England was alienated from all driving mechanisms tested. An explanation was found in concomitant canceling changes of the intensity of the North Sea circulation and the discharge of the river Tay.