Quantifying the Impact of the Latest US Tariff Sanctions on Russia: A Sectoral Analysis

Abstract

In addition to the existing import ban on energy products (oil, gas, coal), the United States recently announced a new sanction package that imposes significantly higher import tariffs on 570 product groups from Russia. These tariff increases affect more than USD 2 billion in US imports from Russia. Using a sector-specific partial-equilibrium (PE) model, we quantify the impact of these US tariff increases. We find that the new tariffs affect 8.7% of total US imports from Russia and may decrease Russian welfare by USD 181 million per year, while imposing annual costs of USD 90 million on US consumers. Our sectoral analysis shows that the US’ choice of target sectors produces mixed results. On one hand, the sanctions cover dozens of sectors whose inclusion produce particularly large welfare losses to Russia and/or high welfare gains to the US Yet, for several target sectors higher tariffs result in zero harm to Russia, and/or greater harm to the US than to Russia. For example, higher tariffs for several selected sectors result in zero harm to Russia, and/or greater harm to the United States than to Russia. These and other insights may provide guidance for the design of future tariff sanctions by the European Union (EU) and other Allies. International trade, war in Ukraine, economic sanctions, import tariffs, economic impact, partial equilibrium, sectoral analysis, welfare analysis, pass-through, tariff revenue, Russia, United States, European Union