Quantifying the impact of ozone on crops in Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates regional and local hotspots of production loss.

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone can have a detrimental effect on vegetation, including reducing the quantity of crop yield. This study uses modelled ozone flux values (POD3IAM; phytotoxic ozone dose above 3 nmol m-2 s-1, parameterised for integrated assessment modelling) for 2015, together with species-specific flux-effect relationships, spatial data on production and growing season dates to quantify the impact of ozone on the production of common wheat (Triticum aestivum) and common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A case study for South Africa was also done using detailed data per province. Results suggest that ozone pollution could decrease wheat yield by between 2 and 13%, with a total annual loss of 453,000 t across SSA. The impact on bean production depended on the season; however, estimated yield losses were up to 21% in some areas of SSA, with an annual loss of ~300,000 t for each of the two main growing seasons. Production losses tended to be greater in countries with the highest production, for example, Ethiopia (wheat) and Tanzania (beans). This study provides an indication of the location of areas at high risk of crop losses due to ozone. Results emphasise that efforts to reduce ozone precursors could contribute to reducing the yield gap in SSA. More stringent air pollution abatement policies are required to reduce crop losses to ozone in the future.