Quantifying the Impact of Dynamic Lapse Regimes on Spatially-Distributed Snow Simulations

Abstract

Accurate characterization of surface meteorological distributions over coastal areas and complex terrain, especially the relationship between temperature and altitude, is essential for the accurate simulation of snowpack dynamics. This becomes increasingly difficult at spatial resolutions smaller than common gridded meteorological forcing datasets due to the sparsity of long-term temperature measurements and the influence of local factors like cool air pooling and inversions. Near-surface air temperatures (Ta) are often assumed to decrease with elevation at a constant rate of 6.5oC km-1, which could lead to large model errors in snow evolution and other processes key to snow hydrology, water resource management, and other applications. This study evaluates the impact of local dynamical adjustments to downscaled Ta on snow simulations over two coastal mountainous terrains using the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) land surface model. Forcings are derived from remote sensing and reanalysis precipitation products and the (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) MERRA-2 atmospheric products (including Ta) at the downscaled 1-km resolution. Hourly lapse rates at each grid cell are calculated by applying linear regression to Ta and elevation from surrounding grid cells (within one grid lengths in the x or y direction) at the Ta native MERRA-2 resolution and applied to the downscaled 1-km Ta product. We will present the impact on simulated snow water equivalent, snow cover, and snow depth across simulations forced with the downscaled Ta (1) without lapse rate correction, (2) corrected with a constant lapse rate (6.5oC km-1), and (3) corrected with the dynamic hourly lapse rate. Results will be compared against remote sensing-based products.