Abstract
Abstract. Satellite altimetry measurements show that the magnitude of the Black Sea sea level trends is spatially uneven. While the basin-mean sea level rise from 1993 to 2014 was about 3.15 mm yr−1, the local rates of sea level rise varied from 1.5–2.5 mm yr−1 in the central part to 3.5–3.8 mm yr−1 at the basin periphery and over the northwestern shelf and to 5 mm yr−1 in the southeastern part of the sea. We show that the observed spatial differences in the dynamic sea level (anomaly relative to the basin-mean) are caused by changes in the large- and mesoscale dynamics of the Black Sea. First, a long-term intensification of the cyclonic wind curl over the Black Sea, observed in 1993–2014, strengthened divergence in the center of the basin and led to the rise of the sea level in coastal and shelf areas and a lowering in the basin's interior. Second, an extension of the Batumi anticyclone to the west resulted in ∼ 1.2 mm yr−1 higher rates of sea level rise in the southeastern part of the sea. Further, we demonstrate that the large-scale dynamic sea level variability in the Black Sea can be successfully reconstructed using the wind curl obtained from an atmospheric reanalysis. This allows for the correction of historical tide gauge records for dynamic effects in order to derive more accurate estimates of the basin-mean sea level change in the past, prior to the satellite altimetry era.
Highlights
The mean sea level (MSL) rise in the Black Sea, as well as in the World Ocean, is mainly caused by the basin’s freshwater budget and the thermal expansion of the water column due to warming (Stanev et al, 2000; Goryachkin and Ivanov, 2006; Jevrejeva et al, 2006; Cazenave and Llovel, 2010)
Both the tide gauge and altimetry records show that sea level trends in the Black Sea are not constant over time (e.g., Goryachkin and Ivanov, 2006; Kubryakov and Stanichnyi, 2013): MSL was rising at a very high rate of ∼ 28 mm yr−1 in 1993– 1999 (Ducet et al, 1999; Stanev et al, 2000; Cazenave et al, 2002; Goryachkin et al, 2003; Vigo et al, 2005; Yildiz et al, 2008), and it began to fall by ∼ 3 mm yr−1 in 1999–2007 (Ginzburg et al, 2011)
Based on the above considerations, the spatial distribution of the Black Sea trends presented in Fig. 1c can be explained by two factors: (a) the rise of the average Black Sea sea level (BSSL) by 3.15 mm yr−1 due to the change of water mass and/or volume in the basin and (b) the increase of Ekman divergence in the center of the sea due to the strengthening of the cyclonic wind curl over the basin
Summary
The mean sea level (MSL) rise in the Black Sea, as well as in the World Ocean, is mainly caused by the basin’s freshwater budget and the thermal expansion of the water column due to warming (Stanev et al, 2000; Goryachkin and Ivanov, 2006; Jevrejeva et al, 2006; Cazenave and Llovel, 2010). Based on satellite altimetry measurements during 1993–2010, the global and the Black Sea MSL rose at a faster rate of ∼ 3.1 mm yr−1 (Church et al, 2013; Avsar et al, 2015) Both the tide gauge and altimetry records show that sea level trends in the Black Sea are not constant over time (e.g., Goryachkin and Ivanov, 2006; Kubryakov and Stanichnyi, 2013): MSL was rising at a very high rate of ∼ 28 mm yr−1 in 1993– 1999 (Ducet et al, 1999; Stanev et al, 2000; Cazenave et al, 2002; Goryachkin et al, 2003; Vigo et al, 2005; Yildiz et al, 2008), and it began to fall by ∼ 3 mm yr−1 in 1999–2007 (Ginzburg et al, 2011). That is why the investigation into both the spatial variability of the sea level rise in the Black Sea and its causes is an important task for the coastal applications
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